Is fuel duty going up?

As things stand, yes — twice. Duty on petrol and diesel is 52.95p a litre until 31 December 2026, rises to 55.95p on 1 January 2027 and to 57.95p on 1 March 2027, restoring the rate that applied before March 2022. With VAT on top that is about 6.00p a litre at the pump, roughly £3.00 on a 50-litre tank. It is the legislated default rather than a final decision: the cut has been extended several times and final rates are to be confirmed at Budget 2026.

The two dates

The temporary cut introduced in March 2022 is scheduled to come off in two steps, not one. That matters if you are budgeting, because the first step lands in the middle of winter and the second two months later.

From	Duty	At the pump	What it is
now, until 31 December 2026	52.95p	—	The temporary 5p cut, first introduced in March 2022 and extended several times since.
1 January 2027	55.95p	+3.60p	First of two steps unwinding the cut: 3p of the 5p comes back.
1 March 2027	57.95p	+6.00p	The remaining 2p returns, restoring the rate that applied before March 2022.

Source: HMRC, Amended Fuel Duty rates: 2026 to 2027. Read the rates. Checked 2026-09-21. Petrol and diesel carry the same rate.

This is not a decision that has been taken. These are the legislated default rates. The government has said final rates will be confirmed at Budget 2026, and the temporary cut has already been extended several times, so treat this as what happens if nothing changes rather than as a decision that has been taken.

The bit almost everyone leaves out: VAT

Duty is charged per litre, and then 20% VAT is charged on a price that already includes it. So a rise in duty does not arrive at the pump as the same number. The full 5.00p becomes about 6.00p a litre — a fifth more than the headline. Any coverage quoting “5p” is describing the tax, not your bill.

What it costs you

A 50-litre tank

£3.00

more, once both steps have landed

A year of average driving

£48.42

7,100 miles at 40 mpg

Duty share of the pump price

30%

before VAT is added on top

Pump price for that comparison: UK average pump price, week commencing 5 October 2026 (DESNZ). Your own figure depends on what the car actually does — put it into the running cost calculator rather than using an average.

Why the date keeps moving

The cut was introduced as a temporary response to fuel prices in March 2022 and has been extended at successive Budgets since. Each extension has been announced close to the expiry date, which is why a confident prediction either way is worth very little. What can be said with certainty is what the legislation currently provides for, which is the table above.

What to do about it

If you are choosing between two cars, the difference in consumption matters more than the duty rise — on average mileage, £48.42 a year is smaller than the gap between a thirsty car and an economical one.
If you are weighing petrol against electric, note that electric faces its own per-mile charge from April 2028. See how that works and the EV versus petrol calculator.
None of this affects whether you can buy a petrol car. See petrol cars after 2030.

Frequently asked

When exactly does fuel duty go up?

On 1 January 2027 it rises from 52.95p to 55.95p a litre, and on 1 March 2027 to 57.95p. Most coverage describes this as one 5p increase; legislatively it is 3.00p followed by 2.00p.

How much will that actually cost me?

The full 5.00p of duty becomes about 6.00p at the pump once VAT is added, because VAT is charged on a price that already includes duty. That is roughly £3.00 to fill a 50-litre tank, or about £48.42 a year for a car doing 7,100 miles at 40 mpg.

Is it definitely happening?

These are the legislated default rates. The government has said final rates will be confirmed at Budget 2026, and the temporary cut has already been extended several times, so treat this as what happens if nothing changes rather than as a decision that has been taken.

Do petrol and diesel pay different duty?

No. Unleaded petrol and heavy oil, which is what diesel is taxed as, carry the same rate per litre. The gap you see at the pump is product cost and retailer margin, not tax.

How much of the pump price is tax?

Duty alone is currently 52.95p of a petrol price around 174.88p, so about 30% before VAT. VAT then adds a sixth of the pump price on top, bringing duty and VAT together to about 47% of what you pay — just under half at current prices, and a larger share whenever the oil price falls.

Does any of this affect electric cars?

Not directly — electricity is not subject to fuel duty. But electric cars face a separate per-mile charge from April 2028, so the running-cost gap between petrol and electric is being narrowed from both ends.